Gov Race '25 UPDATE

Race no longer a Toss Up.

The flu bug having finally cleared the premises, we return to the drama that is the Virginia governor’s race.

As reported Wednesday by Brandon Jarvis, former Delegate Dave LaRock is not only considering a run for the Republican nomination, he is actively pursuing it.

I spoke with Republican activist, Waverly Woods, yesterday at some length and she provided me the with following quote about the effort to get LaRock on the June primary ballot:

Conservative grassroots leaders and activists all across the Commonwealth have been having conversations about our options in the race for Governor. We believe we need the strongest conservative nominee possible to take on Abigail Spanberger in November. A candidate with a solid track record on our core issues of Life, traditional values and a consistent demonstrated record of support for President Trump. We believe Dave LaRock has demonstrated with over a decade of public service a commitment to all of these things. We have assembled volunteers all across the state to gather signatures to encourage Dave to file a candidacy for Governor. This is truly a bottom up grassroots effort and I'm proud to volunteer my time to help organize it.

This effort comes just a week after former Trump state chair and MAGA media mogul, John Fredericks, endorsed Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears, the prohibitive favorite for the nomination.

When reached at CPAC Thursday afternoon, Fredericks offered his thoughts on the LaRock effort:

Dave LaRock was a principled delegate who lost the Republican nomination for the state Senate two years ago. This thing is over and I doubt he will be able to gather the signatures required by the filing deadline. This is the last gasp of the Bonnie and Clyde (Chris and Diana Shores) clown show.

Democrats, on the other hand, seem to be coalescing behind front runner former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger as she recently announced the endorsement of the Virginia League of Conservation Voters.

Blue Virginia headline reads: Virginia League of Conservation Voters’ Endorsement of Abigail Spanberger is the Earliest in a Gubernatorial General Election in the VA LCV’s 26-Year History

Recent reports that Congressman Bobby Scott was considering a run for the Democratic nomination have thus far only yielded mild, passing chatter. Other rumors suggesting among others, state Senator Jennifer Carroll Foy was considering a run never got out of the gate. (The rumors, not Carroll Foy.)

Time is running out for anyone to mount a serious challenge for either Spanberger or Earle-Sears.

The filing deadline of April 3rd requires the signature of at least 10,000 verified registered voters.

Then comes the hard part - actually mounting a campaign that threatens their status as prohibitive favorite for their party’s nomination in June.

Former congressman Denver Riggleman has been publicly quiet in recent weeks regarding his announced exploratory committee for either Governor or Lt. Governor as an independent candidate.

Democrats are more worried about Riggleman taking votes from Spanberger than they are about a late entry for the nomination.

Republicans, on the other hand, seem to be more worried about Earle-Sears not having the base of their party fully behind her. A recent poll by VCU showed softness among the GOP rank and file for Earl-Sears.

In a likely Democratic year, Republicans are going to need every vote they can get - especially with Donald Trump fueling national Democratic comeback hopes that start here in the Commonwealth.

Bottom Line: Virginia is a D+3 state and moves from a Toss Up to Slight Lean Democratic in the fall.

Caveat - If Riggleman gets in, all bets are off.

Here are the numbers from November 2024 by state.

Trump numbers on the left.