Prediction - Trump will endorse Sears

Monty Python, The Godfather, Peaches and Herb, Al Green

For all you political nerds nerdling around here in Election Nerd Disneyland (a.k.a Virginia), don’t be surprised when President Donald Trump endorses Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears for the Republican nomination for governor.

I’ve been saying this for weeks to various media outlets and most recently on this morning’s John Fredericks burgeoning MAGA media empire.

Why will Trump endorse Sears?

It’s simple.

They both need each other and that makes for good politics.

Basic conversation;

“Winsome, I need you to win.”

“Mr. President, I need YOU to win.”

“Thumbs up?”

“Thumbs up!”

*cameras click*

Trump needs to keep the Republican team together in order to pass his agenda and Sears needs to turn out low propensity/presidential year/2024 first time voters and dedicated MAGA voters.

Recently, Sears has drawn two opponents for the nomination in former State Senator Amanda Chase and former Delegate Dave LaRock.

The two party system, weak and corrupt as it is, has been fairly predictable: Incumbent gets challenged from the more progressive or more conservative wing of their respective party.

Grassroots vs. the Establishment. Rinse and repeat. Consultants need to feed their families, too.

Definition time.

Establishment n. elected official who has won re-election

For all you election nerds playing the board game at home, turn to the Monty Python Holy Grail scene.

The Witch is the Establishment. The Crowd is made up of local political committee meeting attendees. a.k.a The Base.

Republicans seem to no longer run to the right, but to the Trump of the base. (Trumpier? Trumpiest?)

Democrats are currently in mass therapy trying to understand just what happened last year and as such haven’t quite figured out which way to go. But they will - it’s early.

Both Chase and LaRock are trying to make the case that Sears is Not Trump Enough. They are ditching the RINO (Republican In Name Only) heresy tag for Trump In Name Only - or TINO.

(There has to be a better acronym out there, but for now let’s do TINO.)

It’s not like either Chase or LaRock can make the case that Sears isn’t conservative enough.

Or did you forget this famous photo?

Nothing screams raging moderate quite like an AR-15 in business attire.

Bad hair day, maybe. Moderate? NAH. Can’t square that circle.

So what has been the great sin of Winsome Earle-Sears?

Well, two days after the 2022 midterms she said on Fox Business with Neil Cavuto that the “voters have spoken” and that Trump should probably give way to other leaders within the Republicans party.

<cue gasp>

<clutch pearls>

Need I remind what JD Vance, Marco Rubio, Lindsey Graham, and scores of other Republicans have said in the past about Donald Trump? Sheesh.

Comparatively speaking - the sin of Sears was venial compare to those men’s mortal sins. Catholics know the difference.

They all got past it. They acted like adults and made up.

Why? Mutual self interest.

Trump needs to keep his GOP team together in order to keep passing his agenda.

To do that, he needs to be seen supporting Republicans so that the GOP members of the US Senate and House know that he a) has their back b) is willing to help and c) will see past their transgressions.

Trump has left a good bit of the conservative ideology behind (abortion, free trade, foreign policy) for his version of The American Right; however, he also tracks well with revered conservative thought leader Roger Scruton who wrote:

Those who confess, sacrifice their pride, while those who forgive, sacrifice their resentment, renouncing thereby something that had been dear to their hearts. Confession and forgiveness are the habits that made our civilization possible.

Confession and forgiveness have also made Trump’s political legacy possible.

Give credit where it is due. The man knows how to mend broken fences.

National Republicans know that their odds are long in the Commonwealth this year, but victory is still possible.

They need the Virginia GOP to keep the momentum going into the 2026 presidential midterms.

Trump and the RNC really need some kind of win in Virginia - a clean sweep of the Governor, Lt. Governor, Attorney General, and House of Delegates would be a disaster.

A loss in Virginia would begin the narrative of the Great 2025 Democratic Comeback.

The two challengers to Sears actually help her in the long run.

a) she’s seen as being not too tied to Trump and MAGA - Virginia voters like an independent streak

b) it cranks up her political operation with much needed focus, discipline, and organization

c) will bring in more money earlier which

d) opens the potential for the large national money - Elon Musk, Republican Governors’ Association, and others - to come in early in the summer and keep the polling close.

The old saying is that politics makes for strange bedfellows.

It’s certainly true, but this time it’s not so strange as Sears was part of an effort that raised a lot of money for Trump in 2020.

Bottom Line - Trump endorses Sears.

But first comes the ask…

The question then becomes…