Virginia Special Elections - Rural Turnout Problem for GOP

The Police - Canary in a Coalmine, Aretha - A Change is Gonna Come, and Clapton - Change the World (live)

It is easy to look past ONE special election.

It’s not so easy to look past THREE specials just two months after the national election and less than two weeks before the presidential inauguration.

Ah, yes…the sweet simple joy of being Virginia - Election Nerd Disneyland.

There are ZERO days off in Virginia politics.

We have an election cycle of consequence EVERY year.

And why not? It’s what we do.

(Always wanted to work in a Samuel L. Jackson reference)

SO.

Three specials.

Two in eastern Loudoun County near Dulles Airport (Senate District 32 and House District 26) and one in rural central Virginia (Senate District 10) with its eleven jurisdictions.

My analysis is based not on the recent presidential election, but rather the 2021 gubernatorial election. They are different electorates and 2025’s results will be closer to 2021’s, than 2024’s.

With that in mind, the Republicans could be facing a serious drop off in rural turnout in 2025 jeopardizing the prospects of retaining the Executive Mansion.

Here’s why.

Senate District 32 (eastern Loudoun)

The Democratic nominee won 61-39.

In 2021, Democrat Terry McAuliffe won SD 32 with roughly the same margin 61-39.

Independent/Liberation Party Princess Blanding won 0.7% statewide. (Ah)

Recent races in SD-32:

Pretty much in line with 2021 and 2022, right? Note: Kaine v. Harris with 3.3 points to the good for Senator Kaine.

House District 26 (eastern Loudoun)

Democratic nominee wins similar to SD 32 61.5 - 38.

2021: That’s a spot on match:

Recent races in HD-26:

Note again suburban drop-off from Kaine to Harris - this time 4 points.

Senate District 10 (rural central Virginia)

Republicans win 59-41. (+18)

But in 2021, Republican Glenn Youngkin won by a MUCH bigger margin 68-32. (+36)

That’s a troubling drop in rural turnout for the Republicans.

Here are other recent races in SD-10:

2022 - R + 31.6

2023 - R unopposed

2024 - R +26.9

Trend? 36-32-27-18.

Graphics - Virginia Board of Elections and VPAP.

Bottom Line:

Democrats are positioned to win in 2025.

Governor Glenn Youngkin won in 2021 by improving Republican margins in just about every precinct, locality, and legislative district. The GOP even won back control of the House of Delegates by picking up seven seats.

That was with a statewide margin of less than two points or about 66,000 votes.

Youngkin did so, in part, by just about matching McAuliffe’s fundraising:

Based on the size of the rural turnout decline (+36 down to +18) in Senate District 10 and the Democrats holding their suburban margins in eastern Loudoun in two races, the Democratic Party’s chances of winning back the governor’s mansion in 2025 while possibly growing their House majority (won back during the gubernatorial midterms in ‘23) by more than a couple of seats is real.

And isn’t that special?